Influencia de la Incertidumbre de Política Económica en la rentabilidad del bono español

Abstract

Since the financial crisis in 2007, the Uncertainty of Economic Policy has received special attention. This paper analyze the influence of Economic Policy Uncertainty on the profitability of Spanish bonds. Under the assumption that the profitability of public debt is a representative factor of the health of an economy, reflecting the confidence of investors in a country, the uncertainty generated by the formulators of fiscal, regulatory and monetary policies should affect the certainty of investors and, therefore, shows tangible effects on the profitability of such securities. Using a sample from January 2001 to January 2019, it can be seen that the Uncertainty of Economic Policy has positive and have a significant impacts on the profitability of the Spanish bond, demonstrating that the Uncertainty of Economic Policy of a country reduces the confidence of investors in its economy, motivating the demand for greater profitability to compensate for the perceived risk. The findings show the need for greater control of Economic Policy Uncertainty to avoid its consequences on the economy.