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Derivados Climáticos para la Gestión del Riesgo Climático en Hoteles: Un Enfoque Predictivo a Partir de Hoteles Españoles
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La climatología influye significativamente en el turismo, y el cambio climático ha incrementado la preocupación por sus posibles impactos futuros. Aunque los estudios sobre gestión del riesgo climático proponen el uso de derivados, como los futuros sobre temperatura, para el sector hotelero, a menudo pasan por alto la viabilidad del mercado. Una cobertura eficaz requiere un mercado accesible y eficiente en costes, lo que depende de su rentabilidad. Este estudio evalúa la viabilidad de un mercado de derivados para que los hoteles españoles puedan cubrir los riesgos climáticos relacionados con la temperatura. Para ello, se analizan datos del periodo 2016-2023 de una selección de ciudades turísticas españolas mediante regresión Elastic Net, con el objetivo de identificar las localizaciones en las que los derivados climáticos resultan más relevantes. Los resultados muestran que los derivados sobre temperatura pueden cubrir eficazmente el riesgo en aquellas ciudades donde el clima tiene una incidencia significativa sobre la ocupación hotelera. El estudio aporta evidencia útil para la gestión del riesgo en el sector hotelero y respalda la creación de mercados de derivados climáticos adaptados al turismo.
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